样本区间 2020Q1 – 2026Q3，本金 $10,000 全部押在 BTC 一条腿上，与世界最主流的加密资产对照。
纵轴对数刻度，起点 $10,000，每个点为季度末已实现权益。
策略与买入持有并列，方便直接比较。
| 指标 | 策略 | 买入持有 |
|---|---|---|
| 期末权益 | $5,864,059 | $86,723 |
| 年化收益率 | +157.1% | +37.7% |
| 季均收益（算术） | +42.22% | +16.85% |
| 季均收益（几何） | +26.63% | +8.33% |
| 最好季度 | +286.7% | +167.3% |
| 最差季度 | -28.0% | -58.8% |
| 逐根最大回撤 | −48.7% | −77.1% |
| 盈利季度 | 18 / 27 | — |
| 季度收益 ≥ 30% | 9 / 27 | — |
| 交易笔数 | 89 | 1（一次买入） |
27 个自然季度的逐季收益，绿正红负。
每一格都可以与自行复现的结果对照。
| 季度 | 策略权益 | 策略收益 | 买入持有权益 | 买入持有收益 | 超额 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Q1 | $19,447 | +94.47% | $6,893 | -31.07% | +125.55pp |
| 2020Q2 | $23,304 | +19.83% | $9,800 | +42.18% | -22.35pp |
| 2020Q3 | $18,585 | -20.25% | $11,514 | +17.49% | -37.74pp |
| 2020Q4 | $15,744 | -15.29% | $30,772 | +167.26% | -182.55pp |
| 2021Q1 | $46,550 | +195.67% | $63,449 | +106.19% | +89.48pp |
| 2021Q2 | $58,135 | +24.89% | $36,542 | -42.41% | +67.29pp |
| 2021Q3 | $68,766 | +18.29% | $46,092 | +26.13% | -7.84pp |
| 2021Q4 | $59,460 | -13.53% | $51,305 | +11.31% | -24.84pp |
| 2022Q1 | $76,721 | +29.03% | $49,643 | -3.24% | +32.27pp |
| 2022Q2 | $98,596 | +28.51% | $20,449 | -58.81% | +87.32pp |
| 2022Q3 | $81,803 | -17.03% | $21,107 | +3.22% | -20.25pp |
| 2022Q4 | $62,140 | -24.04% | $17,726 | -16.02% | -8.02pp |
| 2023Q1 | $240,312 | +286.73% | $30,447 | +71.76% | +214.97pp |
| 2023Q2 | $187,336 | -22.04% | $32,118 | +5.49% | -27.53pp |
| 2023Q3 | $240,484 | +28.37% | $28,842 | -10.20% | +38.57pp |
| 2023Q4 | $802,747 | +233.81% | $45,411 | +57.45% | +176.36pp |
| 2024Q1 | $1,232,845 | +53.58% | $75,289 | +65.80% | -12.22pp |
| 2024Q2 | $887,135 | -28.04% | $65,966 | -12.38% | -15.66pp |
| 2024Q3 | $1,004,110 | +13.19% | $67,904 | +2.94% | +10.25pp |
| 2024Q4 | $1,570,371 | +56.39% | $101,947 | +50.14% | +6.26pp |
| 2025Q1 | $1,232,492 | -21.52% | $89,105 | -12.60% | -8.92pp |
| 2025Q2 | $1,645,001 | +33.47% | $114,918 | +28.97% | +4.50pp |
| 2025Q3 | $1,241,718 | -24.52% | $120,828 | +5.14% | -29.66pp |
| 2025Q4 | $1,494,400 | +20.35% | $93,953 | -22.24% | +42.59pp |
| 2026Q1 | $2,019,736 | +35.15% | $71,286 | -24.13% | +59.28pp |
| 2026Q2 | $2,593,797 | +28.42% | $62,368 | -12.51% | +40.93pp |
| 2026Q3 | $5,864,059 | +126.08% | $86,723 | +39.05% | +87.03pp |
对这张曲线的客观描述，不含任何结论性建议。