同一套规则换到 ETH：波动更大、趋势更碎，结果与 BTC 拉开明显差距。
纵轴对数刻度，起点 $10,000，每个点为季度末已实现权益。
策略与买入持有并列，方便直接比较。
| 指标 | 策略 | 买入持有 |
|---|---|---|
| 期末权益 | $59,296 | $139,179 |
| 年化收益率 | +30.2% | +47.7% |
| 季均收益（算术） | +13.82% | +20.69% |
| 季均收益（几何） | +6.81% | +10.24% |
| 最好季度 | +186.7% | +151.4% |
| 最差季度 | -16.5% | -69.2% |
| 逐根最大回撤 | −56.0% | −81.2% |
| 盈利季度 | 9 / 27 | — |
| 季度收益 ≥ 30% | 7 / 27 | — |
| 交易笔数 | 104 | 1（一次买入） |
27 个自然季度的逐季收益，绿正红负。
每一格都可以与自行复现的结果对照。
| 季度 | 策略权益 | 策略收益 | 买入持有权益 | 买入持有收益 | 超额 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Q1 | $8,446 | -15.54% | $6,986 | -30.14% | +14.60pp |
| 2020Q2 | $9,846 | +16.58% | $11,916 | +70.57% | -54.00pp |
| 2020Q3 | $28,227 | +186.67% | $18,799 | +57.76% | +128.91pp |
| 2020Q4 | $25,080 | -11.15% | $38,757 | +106.16% | -117.31pp |
| 2021Q1 | $22,081 | -11.95% | $97,425 | +151.38% | -163.33pp |
| 2021Q2 | $18,567 | -15.92% | $110,723 | +13.65% | -29.57pp |
| 2021Q3 | $26,756 | +44.11% | $157,146 | +41.93% | +2.18pp |
| 2021Q4 | $23,497 | -12.18% | $199,147 | +26.73% | -38.91pp |
| 2022Q1 | $20,861 | -11.22% | $176,335 | -11.46% | +0.23pp |
| 2022Q2 | $18,680 | -10.45% | $54,307 | -69.20% | +58.75pp |
| 2022Q3 | $16,467 | -11.85% | $71,103 | +30.93% | -42.78pp |
| 2022Q4 | $20,219 | +22.79% | $63,310 | -10.96% | +33.75pp |
| 2023Q1 | $38,158 | +88.73% | $96,336 | +52.17% | +36.56pp |
| 2023Q2 | $34,251 | -10.24% | $97,455 | +1.16% | -11.40pp |
| 2023Q3 | $30,001 | -12.41% | $88,578 | -9.11% | -3.30pp |
| 2023Q4 | $26,275 | -12.42% | $121,116 | +36.73% | -49.15pp |
| 2024Q1 | $57,496 | +118.82% | $190,631 | +57.40% | +61.43pp |
| 2024Q2 | $49,294 | -14.26% | $178,935 | -6.14% | -8.13pp |
| 2024Q3 | $41,637 | -15.53% | $136,618 | -23.65% | +8.12pp |
| 2024Q4 | $54,904 | +31.86% | $179,657 | +31.50% | +0.36pp |
| 2025Q1 | $46,676 | -14.99% | $96,940 | -46.04% | +31.05pp |
| 2025Q2 | $41,861 | -10.32% | $130,221 | +34.33% | -44.65pp |
| 2025Q3 | $61,721 | +47.44% | $216,799 | +66.49% | -19.04pp |
| 2025Q4 | $51,558 | -16.47% | $157,110 | -27.53% | +11.07pp |
| 2026Q1 | $74,652 | +44.79% | $108,116 | -31.18% | +75.98pp |
| 2026Q2 | $66,905 | -10.38% | $82,367 | -23.82% | +13.44pp |
| 2026Q3 | $59,296 | -11.37% | $139,179 | +68.97% | -80.35pp |
对这张曲线的客观描述，不含任何结论性建议。
在 ETH 上，同一套规则的年化（+30.2%）低于买入持有（+47.7%），期末权益 $59,296 对比 $139,179。这与 BTC 上的结论相反。
差异主要来自波动对复利的折损：ETH 的季均（算术）为 +13.82%，而季均（几何）只有 +6.81%，两者相差超过 7 个百分点。即便如此，策略的回撤（56.0%）仍明显低于买入持有（81.2%）——它的价值在风险端，不在收益端。